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Forecasting is always fun, isn't it.
Obviously, you won't hit a perfect number, but there are some things you can do to put you in an appropriate range.
1. Review your previous numbers and watch the averages year over year to see where you have consistent demand as compared to seasonal spikes.
2. Speak with your current catering customers to get a sense of what demand they anticipate over the next 6 - 12 months. It would be nice to get data further out, but I question whether they could give you that information. When they do give you expected future demand, ask them their confidence level on hitting those numbers.
3. Do you have any other regular customers other than the caterers that can give you similar data?
4. Do you plan on adding in any new business in the next 1, 3, and 5 year time frame? If so, are yu already in discussion with any of those customers to give you their projections?
5. Are you changing any equipment from your current manufacturing process to your new retail space? How will this affect your output?
6. Take your numbers from your past two years. Remove any one-time business that you don't expect to see again. For example, if you catered an event last year that created a spike in your demand that you don't expect to have in the upcoming year. With all one-time business spikes removed, calculate the year-over-year percentage change on a monthly basis (i.e. percentage change from December '08 compared to December '09). Take the percentage change and calculate the same percentage change in moving forward for the next 12 months. Factor in all high confidence projections from your customers and any new business you plan on pursuing.
7. Once you have these numbers, review any output changes you may have from a change in kitchen equipment affecting how many units you can produce on a monthly basis.
8. Research changes for your local area. See if your city hall or chamber of commerce can provide you with business trend figures. Are there any know competitors opening up in the area. Compare the local outlook with your projections.
9. Then you are left with a WAG (Wild A** Guess).
Hope this helps.
Let me know if I can help further.