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    0 Replies Latest reply on Feb 6, 2009 12:13 PM by EconPulseBRAI

    Economic Pulse Survey Shows Recession Will Last Beyond 2009

    EconPulseBRAI Newbie
      More than half of the
      respondents to Barlow Research's latest Economic Pulse Survey expect
      the current recession to last beyond 2009. According to Keith Leggett
      Senior Economist at American Bankers Association, "ABA's Economic
      Advisory Committee is forecasting that we will see the first stages of
      recovery in the second half of 2009. This is a clear indication that
      there is a large level of pessimism amongst small businesses." Based on
      the Economic Pulse Survey results, Barlow Research estimates that the
      1st quarter Barlow Small Business Economic Index will fall to a
      historic low of 64, a 12 point slide from the Barlow Small Business
      Economic Index score of 76 for the 4th quarter of 2008.

      Much
      of the media is focused on credit availability as a major driver of the
      current economic recession. The Economic Pulse Survey shows that small
      business and middle market companies are reporting similar rates of
      being denied credit (11% and 12% respectively). "While bank health
      seems to be the biggest problem for the government and the Federal
      Reserve System, banks do not seem to be a big problem for small and
      intermediate-sized businesses," said Robert Brusca, Chief Economist at
      Fact and Opinion Economics. "For them it's the economy, stupid, as a
      former president once said."

      The
      Economic Pulse Survey continues to show strong regional differences
      concerning the 1st quarter 2009 estimate of the Barlow Small Business
      Economic Index. The Northeast region of the country maintains its
      pessimistic trend, whereas the West region is starting to show some
      signs of increased optimism which may come from a strong belief in the
      future financial condition of their own company.

      The
      survey results also show that in addition to decreased sales and
      profits in 2008, about 40% of businesses altered their long-range plan
      and about half of the financial decision makers plan to postpone their
      retirement.

      About Barlow Research Economic Pulse Survey

      The Economic Pulse Survey
      is an invitation-only survey completed online. Invitation letters were
      mailed to potential respondents on January 6th, 2009 and the survey was
      closed on January 20th, 2009. A final sample of 314 small business
      respondents ($100K-$9.9MM) and 328 middle market respondents
      ($10MM-$499.9MM) were collected. Responses were weighted by four
      regions and nine sales volume segments.

      The
      Barlow Small Business index is based on respondents' answers to two
      questions on their expectations of their company's financial condition
      and their industry's economic condition. Data for the index has been
      collected quarterly since the 2nd quarter of 2000. A score of 100 on
      the Barlow Small Business Index represents an average growth quarter
      since 2000 (real GDP growth = 2.3%). To achieve this reading, Barlow
      Research set the index score from the third quarter of 2002 (real GDP
      growth = 2.4%) to 100.

      To obtain detailed results on the Barlow Research Economic Pulse survey, visit www.barlowresearch.com/economicpulse.lasso. For updates also follow Barlow Research's Economic Pulse Twitter at www.twitter.com/economicpulse.