Ha ha, a contentious tittle I know, but over the past six weeks there has been a tsunami of fiscal and financial information ex China; better end of year 09 figures than expected, substantial increase on both imports and exports than predicted, a lowering of the trade deficit, wave after wave, we are drowning it it.
More recently, minor adjustments to interest and bank rates, among other things, have sent signals that maybe China is considering withdrawing the Economic Support Package soon. This has sent experts into frenzies of analysis and counter analysis with all eyes now fixed on the important end of first quarter results, due out around end of March, hoping to predict what will the China economy do in 2010 and second guess the Chinese government, a foolish game at the best of times!
For those of you who didn't know, February 14th is an important date as it is the start of the Lunar New Year. Last year, the year of the BULL, was very un-bullish, this year is the year of the Tiger, will it growl and roar into life? Or will it be a pussy cat? This is what the experts with their calculators, spreadsheets and computer generated financial models are desperately working on.
My predictions are way less complex based on noise, smoke and flash.
Chinese New Year Eve is NOT complete without fireworks, the bigger, brighter and louder the better and possibly half of China's air pollution is released on this one night! Last year it was noticeably quieter in comparison with the past 9 years I have lived here as people, waking up to dire economic news and long term bleak predictions were reluctant to see so much of their money go up in smoke or didn't have it in the first place.
But now, we are awash with goods news, both home and abroad so will this translate into general optimism for 2010? Well, it is noon here, still 12 hours to go and as Rod Stewart wrote, "Tonight's the night!" but if the past few days and the almost deafening noise of big bangers outside now are any indication then my guess is YES, 2010 will be a good year for China Business. Furthermore it also seems that for now at least, like Mary's Little Lamb, where China goes, the world is bound to follow.
And I for one will breath a sigh of relief.
Now, where are my matches and sparklers?.