I looked at your profile to see that you own a residential house painting company.
This is a tough question that cannot truly be answered in this forum because there are too many alternative situations to consider. Well, it cannot be answered. We provide our thoughts, you do the gut-check and make a decision.
The three scenarios you present are reasonable but I am going to attempt to give you more to consider.
1. You "know" that "everyone" will be putting off residential painting until the economy improves or they cannot avoid it. Your revenue is going to drop this year. As much as 60 % of your seasonal work usually comes from this mailing. If you don't mail, your revenues are sure to drop by approximately 60 %. You are guaranteed to need a way to make up that revenue elsewhere. But you keep your $50 K.
2. Direct mail typically generates a response of less than one percent. From that pool, a fraction will become customers. I am surprised you have such luck with it. Cutting your list may cut your response more than you imagine. One mailing alone brings in more than $120 K a year for you, if I remember the numbers from your profile correctly. I'd love to know how you are managing your list - I am building one myself.
3. Now is not the time to deploy the money in a
less effective way. If anything, you want to be
more effective, given your stated concerns. There may be some logic to spreading out your mailing. Times could get better. If times get better, people may be more receptive to your offer.
Some things to think about.
1. If your financial situation is strong enough.
Go on the offensive. Your competition may be battening down the hatches. They may not send out a mailing this year. You may pick up some new clients. The company that handles your direct mail campaign may be willing to extend the reach of your campaign for the same money - they may be willing to do more for their revenue in this economy.
2. Take a hard look at past data and try to
refine your list. Can you do a better job defining your target market? Do certain zip codes perform better for you? Do you have any other demographic data you can use.
3.
Look at your old/current clients (current customers are cheaper than obtaining new customers). Look for the people who may be "over due" for a paint job. See who may be thinking about getting the job done. Try to get them to "Yes" by sweetening the deal with incentives - offer more service for the same price (keep the discounts in you back pocket as long as you can).
These are things off the top of my head. I hope things work out for you this year.
Drop by my site. Shoot me an e-mail. I'd love to know more about how you are managing your list.
http://DanridgeAndAssociates.com
